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Predicting Search Engine Algorithm Changes 
By John Metzler (c) 2006

With moderate search engine optimization knowledge, some common
sense, and a resourceful and imaginative mind, one can keep his
or her web site in good standing with search engines even through
the most significant algorithm changes. The recent Google update
of October/November 2005, dubbed "Jagger", is what inspired me
to write this, as I saw some web sites that previously ranked in
the top 20 results for extremely competitive keywords suddenly
drop down to the 70th page. Yes, the ebb and flow of search
engine rankings is nothing to write home about, but when a web
site doesn't regain many ranking spots after such a drop it can
tell us that the SEO done on the site may have had some long-term
flaws. In this case, the SEO team had not done a good job
predicting the direction a search engine would take with its
algorithm.

Impossible to predict, you say? Not quite. The ideas behind
Google's algorithm come from the minds of fellow humans, not
supercomputers. I'm not suggesting that it's easy to "crack the
code" so to speak because the actual math behind it is extremely
complicated. However, it is possible to understand the general
direction that a search engine algorithm will take by keeping in
mind that any component of SEO which is possible to manipulate
to an abnormal extent will eventually be weighted less and
finally rendered obsolete.

One of the first such areas of a web site that started to get
abused by webmasters trying to raise their rankings was the
keywords meta tag. The tag allows a webmaster to list the web
site's most important keywords so the search engine knows when
to display that site as a result for a matching search. It was
only a matter of time until people started stuffing the tag with
irrelevant words that were searched for more frequently than
relevant words in an attempt to fool the algorithm. And they did
fool it, but not for long. The keywords meta tag was identified
as an area that was too susceptible to misuse and was
subsequently de-valued to the point where the Google algorithm
today doesn't even recognize it when scanning a web page.

Another early tactic which is all but obsolete is repeating
keywords at the bottom of a web page and hiding them by changing
the color of the text to match the background color. Search
engines noticed that this text was not relevant to the visitor
and red-flagged sites that employed this method of SEO.

This information is quite basic, but the idea behind the
aforementioned algorithm shifts several years ago is still
relevant today. With the Jagger update in full swing, people in
the SEO world are taking notice that reciprocal links may very
well be going the way of the keywords meta tag. (i.e. extinct)
Webmasters across the world have long been obsessed with link
exchanges and many profitable web sites exist offering services
that help webmasters swap links with ease. But with a little
foresight, one can see that link trading has its days numbered,
as web sites have obtained thousands of incoming links from
webmasters who may have never even viewed the web site they
are trading with. In other words, web site popularity is being
manipulated by excessively and unnaturally using an SEO method.

So with keyword meta tags, keyword stuffing within content, and
now link exchanges simply a part of SEO history, what will be
targeted in the future? Well, let's start with what search
engines currently look at when ranking a web site and go from
there:

On-page Textual Content

In the future, look for search engines to utilize ontological
analysis of text. In other words, not only your main keywords
will play a factor in your rankings, but also words that relate
to them. For example, someone trying to sell NFL jerseys online
would naturally mention the names of teams and star players. In
the past, algorithms might have skipped over those names, deemed
them irrelevant to a search for "NFL jerseys." But in the future,
search engines will reward those web sites with a higher ranking
than those that excessively repeat just "NFL jerseys." With
ontological analysis, web sites that speak of not only the main
keywords but other relevant words can expect higher rankings.

The Conclusion: Write your web site content for your visitors,
not search engines. The more naturally written sites can expect
to see better results in the future.

Offering Large Amounts of Content

This can frequently take the form of dynamic pages. Even now,
search engines can have a difficult time with dynamic content
on web sites. These pages usually have lengthy URLs consisting
of numbers and characters such as &, =, and ? The common problem
is that the content changes so frequently on these dynamic pages
that the page becomes "old" in the search engine's database, thus
leaving searchers seeing results that contain old information.
Since many dynamic pages are created by web sites displaying
hundreds or thousands of products they sell, and the number of
people selling items on the Internet will obviously increase in
the coming years, you can expect that search engines will improve
their technology and do a better job indexing dynamic content in
the future.

The Conclusion: Put yourself ahead of the game if you are
selling products online and invest in database and shopping cart
software that is SEO-friendly.

Incoming Links

Once thought to be a very difficult thing to manipulate, incoming
links to one's web site have been abused by crafty SEOs and
webmasters the world over. It is finally at a point where Google
is doing a revamp of what constitutes a "vote from [one site to
another]" as they explain it in their webmaster resources section.
Link exchanges are worth significantly less now than ever to the
point where the only real value in obtaining them is to make sure
a new web site gets crawled by search engine spiders.

Over the years, many web sites reached top spot for competitive
keywords by flexing their financial muscle and buying thousands
of text links pointing to their site with keywords in the anchor
text. Usually these links would appear like advertisements along
sidebars or navigation areas of web sites. Essentially this was
an indirect way of paying for high Google rankings, something
which Google is no doubt trying to combat with each passing
algorithm update. One idea of thought is that different areas of
a web page from a visual point of view will be weighted
differently. For example, if a web site adds a link to your site
within the middle of their page text, that link should count for
more than one at the bottom of the site near the copyright
information.

This brings up the value of content distribution. By writing
articles, giving away free resources, or offering something else
of value to people, you can create a significant amount of
content on other web sites that will include a link back to your
own.

The Conclusion: It all starts with useful content. If you
are providing your web site visitors with useful information,
chances are many other sites will want to do the same. SEO
doesn't start with trying to cheat the algorithm; it starts with
an understanding of what search engines look for in a quality
web site.
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An expert at organic SEO, John Metzler has held executive
positions in the search engine marketing industry since 2001. He
is the President of FreshPromo (http://www.freshpromo.ca/), a
Canadian-based SEO firm, and services American clients through
SEOTampa.com (http://www.seotampa.com/).
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