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A Look Back at My 2006 Predictions
By Jim Hedger (c) 2007
It is a day after New Year and virtually everyone is back at
their desks appearing to be hard at work. These are 
among the slowest news days of the year in which everyone's 
fingertips are slowed by two weeks of excessive eating, 
drinking and dreams of dancing sugar plums. Having had our 
fill of family, food and fun, most of the techies I've 
talked with in the past 48-hours are chomping at the bridle 
to get back to work.

Last Wednesday, I pulled out my crystal ball to take a 
glance into the future by publishing 15 predictions for 
2007. It is only appropriate that this week, I hold 
myself to account for my 2006 predictions.

According to my count, I was absolutely correct half the 
time with 5 out of 10 predictions coming close enough for 
counting. I was a bit early on one, way off base with three 
others, and totally out in left-wing field with another.

Here, in the order in which they were written are last 
year's predictions.

1. MSN + someone (Wrong but rumours persist. Let's call 
this one early.)

This is the one I am counting as a bit early. While it 
might have been a "must-happen" for Microsoft, no major 
merger, purchase or expansion was announced. That doesn't 
mean that Microsoft isn't going to make a move sometime in 
the future though. Rumours persist about interest between 
Microsoft and Yahoo. We also strongly suspect AOL is being 
prepped to be offloaded by Time Warner as a separate 
entity.

Another indicator pointing towards Microsoft acting 
acquisitive is the fact it has finally finished the early 
copies of its operating system Vista.  While there might be 
more work to do with Vista, its development has taken most 
of Microsoft's energies over the past few years. Now that 
it is off the drawing board and working its way into 
desktops and laptops, Microsoft might be searching for 
another obsession.

2. Usability and Search Engine Optimization (Correct)

I think I was correct about this prediction. Usable and 
search friendly website design became a standard service 
offered by most high end search marketing shops over 2006 
because it had to. SEOs are being measured by more than a 
website's placements in search results. An easier to use 
site leads to stronger sales from greater conversions.

3. SEO/SEM Community expands services to include 
specialties and features such as Google Base, MSN Fremont 
and Yahoo Shopping. (Sort of, Kind of, almost...)

Results from Google Base are increasingly being integrated 
into Google results and are thought to be both adding to 
and eventually replacing results from Froogle. Several SEO 
and SEM shops began offering services around adding 
listings to Google Base but there has not been a lot 
written about how to work within it. 2006 was not a banner 
year for Yahoo Shopping though it was not necessarily a bad 
one either. We really can't say what has become of MSN's 
GBase clone, code-named Fremont, as nothing seems to have 
come of it.

4. Yahoo moves aggressively into home entertainment. 
(absolutely wrong)

This one was absolutely wrong. The only really entertaining 
thing to come from Yahoo this year was the Peanut Butter 
Memo, a manifesto written by Yahoo Sr. VP Brad Garlinghouse 
that urged other Yahooligans to "catch the balls", after 
laying off between 15 and 20% of its workforce. Shortly 
after the memo was leaked by tech blogger Paul Kedrosky, 
Yahoo did make two significant layoffs when an executive 
level reorganization sent COO Dan Rosenweig and LA-level 
Exec Lloyd Braun packing. Braun best represented Yahoo's 
movement towards the entertainment industry. After Google's 
purchase of YouTube, the die was cast and many of Yahoo's 
infotainment aspirations appear to be dying. The Yahoo 
Publisher Network might prove me wrong on this point.

5. Google's dominance remains practically unchallengeable. 
(Correct but that was an easy one)

Controlling approximately 50% - 70% of the search engine 
market (depending on whose statistics one reads), Google 
continues to be the unchallenged king of the search space.

6. Google's reputation takes huge hits. Mainstream 
net-users begin to compare Google 2K6 with Microsoft circa 
1995. (Correct, but this one too was easy)

Google started to really take it on the chin this year on 
almost every front. From charges of invalid click charges 
issued by dissatisfied PPC advertisers to controversy over 
its practices in relation to the Chinese Government to 
fears that Google is going to control the world of 
information, Google has faced significant public relations 
challenges last year. Moving in to 2007, the PR outlook 
does not look great for Google.

7. International conference planners tend to move away from 
US-based locations as increased security discourages or 
denies some non-US participants entry into the United 
States. (Totally out in left-wing field)

I was very wrong on this one. There are more conferences 
than ever, most of which are based in the United States. 
Perhaps the Department of Homeland Security will find ways 
to introduce increased security measures (such as the 
requirement for everyone entering the United States to 
carry a passport, including Canadians) in 2007 but a quick 
glance at my conference schedule this year shows that if 
anything has changed it is the increased number of events 
held in the United States.

8. LookSmart revamps vertical search tools, re-issues press 
release and is stunned to find nobody really cares. (I 
think I was right but didn't notice. Did you notice 
anything?)

LookSmart? Since when? 'nuff said.

9. Google lights up its massive dark fiber network in a 
show of force reaction to US telco's threats to overcharge 
search engines for bandwidth. In essence, Google becomes 
the first cyber-telco. (Not yet but thought to be coming 
soon)

It is only a matter of time and there has been mention of 
Google Talk becoming a VOIP service but this did not happen 
in 2006.

10. Jeeves is going to be fired, this time for good. 
(Correct. Jeeves was last seen on vacation, likely with his 
new best friend, a sock puppet)

The kind folks at Ask.com did not exactly fire Jeeves 
though they did push him out in no uncertain terms as Ask 
moved to rebrand its services. Jeeves was last seen on a 
long-term vacation but might be back from time to time as a 
guide through the Ask.Com system. Having moved into a well 
deserved retirement, Jeeves is said to be happy hanging out 
with his new pet, a sock puppet dog who was once another 
leading mascot for online services.

Bonus Prediction

Here is a last prediction that is almost certain to come 
true. Search marketing is going to undergo a number of 
major changes over the coming twelve months. Search engines 
have become far more precise in finding, reading, sorting 
and ranking information found on web documents and 
websites. Search marketers are rapidly adapting but the 
biggest shifts in the sector remain to be seen. 2005 was an 
amazing year for our industry and 2006 will be even better 
as the business of search marketing will become less 
convoluted and increasingly specialized. (True but, since 
it is a bonus one, we're not counting it)
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Search marketing expert Jim Hedger is one of the most prolific
writers in the search sector with articles appearing in numerous
search related websites and newsletters, including SiteProNews,
Search Engine Journal, ISEDB.com, and Search Engine Guide.

He is currently Executive Editor for the Jayde Online news sources
SEO-News (http://www.seo-news.com) and SiteProNews
(http://www.sitepronews.com). You can also find additional tips
and news on webmaster and SEO topics by Jim at the SiteProNews
blog (http://blog.sitepronews.com/).
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