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June 4, 2013

Windows to Own 12 Percent of Smartphone Market by 2017, Analyst Firm Predicts

Windows Phone Nokia Lumia 620

Analysts are forecasting  huge gains for Microsoft Smartphones over the next four years.

Independent analyst firm Canalys predicts Smartphone sales will pick up steam in the coming years, accounting for 73 percent of all mobile phone shipments by 2017.

In 2012, more than 470 million Android-based Smartphones shipped, and this number is expected to double by 2017 to more than one billion.

While Android is expected to continue dominating the market, making up 67.1 percent of all Smartphones in circulation, Microsoft sales are expected to climb more than 10 percent to 12.7 percent, driven by aggressive price points for Smartphone products.

Canalys press release 030613 - Table“Nokia is the most active vendor in the Microsoft camp and it continues to make steady progress with its Lumia portfolio. It has had some major carrier wins recently in the two largest markets of China and the US, which will help it build momentum in the short term,” says Canalys analyst Jessica Kwee.

“Longer-term it is the Chinese vendors that are best placed to challenge Samsung’s market dominance. Microsoft already has a relationship with Huawei and ZTE in the phone space, and Lenovo is a major partner in the PC space. These partners will be needed to help deliver the scale that Microsoft needs.”

In contrast, Canalys says, Apple will continue to thrive, but at a slower rate, causing its market share to fall more than five percent to 14.1 percent from 19.5 percent.

‘Apple’s growth will be curtailed by the fact that momentum in the Smartphone market is coming from the low end, and Apple is absent from this segment,’ Kwee says, adding that “Android’s continued dominance is due to the scalability of the platform.”

Blackberry will remain slow and steady numbers-wise, with its market share numbers remaining stable. Canalys predicts, however, that with the release of Blackberry 10 products, its shipments will double. Analysts believe it would be in Blackberry’s favor to focus on growing its presence in China in order to hit target shipment numbers.